PAWAR TO BE LEFT IN THE LURCH?

BE LEFT IN THE LURCH?
By S R Ramanujan

Maharashtra strongman and Nationalist Congress Party chief, Sharad Pawar, who sees Third Front as a force to reckon with, is all set to unleash the cat among the UPA pigeons. He is not going to be content with that. An unscrupulous politician that he is, Pawar is bent upon breaking the UPA, NDA and the latest edition of Third Front to realise his ambition. Whether he succeeds or not, he is going to make an effort to wean away Samajwadi Party from UPA, Shiv Sena from the NDA and whatever possible from the Third Front.
It is difficult to say whether Pawar’s party would be able to get atleast 20 Lok Sabha seats in the coming polls on its own, but never mind, it doesn’t stop his ambitions to the top post in the country. Everyone is entitled to his ambitions. But such ambition should be based on certain realities. A paraplegic cannot nurse an ambition to climb the Mount Everest. Well, one may say politics is all about immense possibilities. May be. Then, it cannot be divorced from ground realities and should not defy conventional wisdom, Costitutional dictum and political ethics. And sadly, Pawar wants to play the most dangerous parochial card. He says that the people of his state want a Maharashtrian Prime Minister. Is this not most abominable divisive politics? Why do we blame others of such a sin? Did he conduct his own survey to know the pulse of Maharashstrians? Look at the irony. His party calls itself as “nationalist” and he plays the worst possible regional card.
Let us look at the basics first. How do we elect a Prime Minister? We have a Parliamentary democracy and not Presidential democracy. A party that enjoys a majority in the House is entitled to elect its Prime Minister and such a candidate should enjoy the confidence of the MPs of his/her party. No one looks at his caste, religion or linguistic background. What is important is whether such a leader is capable enough to do justice to his post, never mind whichever state he hails from.
Pawar is trying to set a dangerous precedent by linking the post of chief executive of the country to his linguistic/regional background. If we extend this logic, why should we deny this privilege to Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal etc. Does this not open the flood gates for people of those states to make a similar demand? Will it not amount to a mockery of our Constitution? As it is, the regional parties are slowly making the national parties irrelevant which, certainly is not in the interest of the nation. Pawar is adding another dirty dimension to the country’s political ethos.
Whoever knows Pawar’s style of politics would vouch for his strange, mysterious and inscrutable political conduct. He can sup with the devil if it can serve his political purpose. If he is now playing the Marathi manoos card, one does not know whether it is just a ploy to wean away Shiv Sena from the BJP atleast after the polls. Shiv Sena, Pawar knows, is quite vulnerable and will become an easy prey for such parochial appeal. If it is not to upset the NDA alliance, he must have other political calculations to stitch up numbers.
Pawar has already declared his penchant for the Third Front and kept an option open in case he needs numbers. But how many from the Third Front will go with him is a moot question. He is going to be greatly disappointed if he counts on the Third Front to realise his ambitions. Besides the four Left parties, Third Front has TDP, TRS, JD(S) and an unknown party of Bhajan Lal and his son who may not get even a single seat. The major regional parties – BSP and AIADMK – are fence sitters till now. There are reports that Telengana Rashtra Samiti chief K Chandrasekara Rao might get out of the “Mahakutami” after the polls in case the NDA is able to pip the post since the latter has promised Telengana statehood within 100 days of coming to power. Interestingly, the Left is split in Kerala and the CPI-M’s big brother attitude has alienated the CPI and both the parties are likely to field candidates in all the 20 seats in Kerala. Revolutionary Socialist Party, one of the partners of the Front did not attend the meeting in Karnataka. So, within the Third Front, Left is in disarray and if the Left parties get 40 seats in the 15th Lok Sabha, they must thank Marx or Lenin.
Can Pawar depend on Mayawati? Certainly not. Mayawati, inspite of giving a miss to the launch function of the Front in Karnataka, has invited the Third Front members for a dinner on Sunday to find out whether they would declare her as the Front’s Prime Ministerial nominee. Probably, she wants this as a pre-condition to formally join the Third Front. All available indications are that the Front partners may oblige her as her party is likely to emerge as the single largest party after UPA and NDA. And for the Left, she will be a better bet as it will cut Amar Singh, a betrayer of the Left, to size. Further, the Left can take the credit for projecting a “Dalit beti” as the country’s first Prime Minister from the oppressed section of society. It will be a double whammy – a woman and a dalit! Most important of all, the Left can continue to exert influence at the Centre as it did for nearly four and a half years with the UPA and bark and bite whenever it likes.
This possible development is also likely to drive away the AIADMK supemo J Jayalalithaa, another aspirant for the top post, from the Front and we need not be surprised if she ties up with the NDA as UPA continues to harbour Karunanidhi despite his shrinking stock. Even her alliance with the Left in Tamil Nadu is an uneasy one and it may go bust anyday.
So, Pawar will be left with only Samajwadi Party which is the only party, so far, to have extended its support to the ambitions of NCP chief. But how many seats SP will have in its kitty to extend formidable support to Pawar? If UPA emerges stronger than what is was in 2004, a remote possibility of course, why should the SP desert the UPA and go behind Pawar? It makes no political sense.
Only two regional parties are left out in this exercise. They are the TDP and Biju Janata Dal. Both these parties are occupying anti-Congress space in their respective states and therefore, they cannot go with the UPA. They will have no alternative except to sail with the Third Front and strengthen the hands of Mayawati.
Where does this leave Pawar? In the lurch?

POLL EVE SOPS ARE DEFERRED BRIBE

POLL EVE SOPS ARE DEFERRED BRIBE
By S R Ramanujan

Veerendra Sehwag may be the fastest cricketer today in India, especially in one-day internationals, by scoring a ton in record time. But he will turn out to be a pigmy if he were to compete with our politicians in terms of speed with which the latter are offering sops to the electorate and the speed with which they are changing their colours. If we compute the sops offered by various political parties, and in case, just in case, they come together to form a coalition, God forbid, the voter can simply sit at home and need not lift his little finger for a comfortable living.
He will have land to till, a house to live, free power, water, school/college fees of children taken care of by the state, free rice, free clothes, free medical aid in corporate hospitals, bank deposits in case he begets a female child, a colour television set with cable connection for full time enjoyment as he doesn’t have to do any work, and as a bonus cash transfer by the state in his bank account for the rainy day. After all these, you can even continue to borrow left right and centre since it will be waived off before the next elections.
How will we generate wealth for such a massive distribution of wealth is not the question to be asked, since you will then be branded anti-poor! Nor are we going to get an answer for such “silly” questions at the election time! What happens to GDP growth? Well, it is for the economic pundits to break their heads!
Telugu Desam Party chief Nara Chandrababu Naidu takes the cake in terms of volume of sops offered to the electorate though one does not know whether he or his “Mahakutami” will have a proportionate piece of the vote cake when the boxes open on May 15. However, what is common to all the rice-eating states and by all the parties is the offer of rice at Rs 2 a kg, while the market price is Rs 30 a kg. Vote bank populism zindabad!
Of course, there is no novelty in this scheme as this was originally conceived by the late C N Annadurai in 1967 itself when he promised three measures (a measure is little more than a kg) for one rupee. When he came to power he reduced it to one measure. NT Rama Rao, though an upholder of Telugu pride, had lots of Tamil influence by virtue of his long stay in Chennai and when he founded his TDP, he announced a kg of rice for Rs 2/- and it paid him handsome dividends at the hustings. Frankly, it was a boon for the BPL families and people still remember him with gratitude for this welfare measure. Soon, it became a norm for every political party to announce subsidised rice in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, West Bengal and of course, Tamil Nadu.
However, what Chandrababu, who was once a staunch opponent of subsidies, has announced for the 2009 elections is mind boggling. The entire revenue budget of the state may not be sufficient to implement his promises. Well, he justifies the shifting stance with a philosophical note – everything on this planet has the tendency to change and change is a sign of progress. But the question that begs for an answer is why this change comes about only at the election time.
One can understand subsidised rice for the BPL families or the food-for-work programme. But is colour TV a basic need of the poor? Chandrababu thinks so. And he wants it even for the middle class! Why not? Should it be the privilege of only the rich? Forget about the middle class, even in urban slums, people have a colour television set and a mobile. Like his father-in-law, he borrowed this idea from the DMK chief minister of Tamil Nadu who promised and implemented partially the colour TV scheme. His promise of colour TV is believed to have worked for him to garner more votes. However, the fact remains that the beneficiaries had either sold the sets or kept them as an additional set at home. Why only colour TV? Should they not have a fridge or an air-conditioner to cool themselves in summer? Naidu and other politicians make it a point to have an annual break to visit Singapore or Malaysia or Europe. Why should it be the status symbol of the rich and the influential? Poorer sections should also have annual holiday at state expense! Why not free tickets to movies in multiplexes for the poor and the middle class?
It is futile to talk about economics with politicians as it does not pierce their thick hide. For example Babu’s pet scheme of “Cash Transfer Scheme”(CTS) may cost the exchequer an annual outlay of more than 40,000 crores of rupees while the state revenue is 70,000 crores. Even this CTS is not Babu’s original thought. Some of his advisers must have told him that such a scheme exists in Latin American and African countries. But, they may not have told him that what is in vogue in those countries is “Conditional Cash Transfer” (CCT) scheme. It was introduced in Mexico in 2002 and in Brazil in 2003. This is known as “Conditional Cash Transfer” because, the cash doles are in exchange for the beneficiaries fulfilling certain conditions like ensuring their children maintain a given level of school attendance, health clinics, immunization programmes, abolition of child labour, breast-feeding etc. This redistribution of wealth is, in the long run, to build up human capital among the poor through improved education, health, nutrition etc.
Has the TDP thought of any such conditionalities? After all, attitude to poverty is culture specific. Well, can we say that the socio-economic conditions are the same in India and the Latin American countries? We have successfully implemented mid-day meal scheme as a great incentive for the poor to send their wards to schools. There is free education upto degree irrespective of caste or religion. May be, inspite of this, we have school drop-outs. Atleast, the CTS should be linked to school attendance.
What is amusing is this. The Election Commission wants the calendars to be covered up wherever it shows the chief minister or Prime Minister. It wants Rajiv Gandhi’s pic to be pasted up in the EMRI ambulances, promotional paintings of welfare schemes to be erased, etc. There can’t be buntings, posters, hoardings and the like. These are not going to influence the voter either way. But what would matter are the sops that are announced just before and well after the announcement of election dates. If Mulayam gives cash in a Holi Milan during the poll campaign, or an MP minister gives away watches, they become corrupt practices; but if Babu promises cash after polls in the name of CTS, it is not a corrupt practice. Is CTS not a deferred bribe for votes, or for that matter a colour TV? What is the difference between a watch during the campaign and colour TV after the polls? Surely, the EC has to take a serious look into the sop opera of the parties. Manifestos can only talk about broad policy framework of the parties and not micro level sops which on one hand do not make any economic sense and the other influence the voter. Certainly, there will be no level playing field which the EC wants to ensure for free and fair polls.