KARAT TO UNDO HISTORICAL BLUNDER?

If there is one leader among those who hold high moral ground in Indian politics and attracts attention not for their political worth as much as their rhetoric and still has been consistent in his poll-related statements, it is Prakash Karat of the CPI-M. He is categorical that the Left may not do business with the Congress in a post-poll scenario. He also went a step further by way of undoing the CPI-M’s historical blunder and said that the Left will not be averse to be part of the government. What he meant was that the Left will take the initiative to form the government with the help of the Third Front. Will such a situation only help the BJP? Perhaps anticipating this, he said that if the Congress wants a secular government at the Centre, it will have no alternative except to support the Left’s venture. What he did not say so explicitly was that the Congress has to support Third Front from outside if it really wanted to have a secular government. In fact, that was the premise on which the Left and UPA came together in 2004 to keep NDA at bay.

If one has to paraphrase this statement it will read like this. In order to keep the “communal forces” at bay, the Left supported the UPA from outside in 2004 and stood by Dr Manmohan Singh. But he, in his unabated love for the US and George Bush, let us down. Now, the UPA is in tatters. Almost all the allies have deserted and even the Congress is contesting the polls as a single party and not as an alliance. There is no way it can get the numbers it got in the last elections. Therefore, if the Congress nominates Dr Manmohan Singh and if the Congress fails to get atleast a working majority on its own, such a nomination has no meaning and it will have no binding on other parties. When the Congress has to depend on other parties for forming a government, why should we play second fiddle to its choice? Let there be a role reversal this time.

A similar sentiment was expressed by Sharad Pawar as well. Dr Manmohan Singh is the candidate of the Congress and not of the UPA. If the UPA has to name the PM candidate, the partners have to sit together and arrive at a consensus. He does not even say Dr Singh can be one of the candidates to be considered to arrive at a consensus. No party on the so-called secular divide seems to be enamoured of the candidature of Dr Singh. But the Congress protests over his “strength” are much louder. Why should any party bet on a candidate who does not even contest the elections and look forward to the party President to name him because of her own compulsions? Even after the Left slammed its door on the Congress, poor Manmohan Singh was sounding so pathetic when he said that he would still like to work with the Left and said not in so many words that it was a mistake to have chucked them out while negotiating the nuclear deal with the US. Mind you, that is the only decision he took on his own without the prior approval of his boss.

Coming back to Karat’s political prescription, who is the Left’s Prime Ministerial candidate? Does Karat want to nominate himself for the top post? Or, is there anyone in the party to fit the bill. None of the top leaders, assuming there are many, of the Left Front seems to be in the poll fray. Nor is any hint forthcoming from the party sources even as every other party has Prime Ministerial candidate in its fold. As of now, it is Sharad Pawar who has been building bridges with the Left by repeatedly suggesting to the Congress that the latter cannot even dream of forming a government without the “blessings” of the Left. And he knows very well that the Left has already made it clear that it will not support a Congress-led government and the doors will remain closed as long as Dr Singh continues to be the nominee of the Congress. Pawar’s fervent hope is in such a situation, he can perch himself for the coveted chair. A million dollar question is whether the Left will trust Pawar? There was resentment in the Left camp when Jayalalithaa suggested Pawar for the top post.

As of now, there are three parties that have made known their inclination for Pawar as a PM candidate. AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa has said that Pawar has experience and maturity for occupying the top executive slot of the country. Naveen Patnaik followed her and certified Pawar’s suitability. Samajwadi Party also will have no objection for Pawar and Amar Singh, prior to the formation of Fourth Front, has declared his party’s support to the Maratha leader. One does not know whether this will hold good after the troika (RJD,LJP and SP) coming together to form the Fourth Front even while claiming to be partners of the UPA.Now about the Third Front on which Karat seems to be betting heavily. Third Front comprises of CPI-M, CPI, RSP, Forward Bloc, AIADMK, PMK, MDMK, TDP, TRS, JD(S) and possibly, BSP since Mayawati is still equivocal about the combination on which she will have “jhappi and pappi” and BJD in Orissa. Even in the best possible scenario where a wave is conceded for AIADMK Front in Tamil Nadu and Mahakootami in Andhra Pradesh, Third Front cannot expect more than 140 seats including 50% of the seats for BSP in Uttar Pradesh. Karat has to necessarily depend on either the Congress or the Fourth Front. Another imponderable in the 2009 poll scenario is whether the Fourth Front will have enough numbers to extend the crucial support for the survival of a government. The Fourth Front is essentially a Front confined to UP and Bihar with a total of 120 seats. The troika has to thank its stars if it gets even 50 out of 120 seats. How can they stand by Karat. Therefore, Karat has to accept support from or extend support to the Congress with a Catch-22 situation hanging on his head. In such a scenario, AIADMK, with its allies, TDP and TRS will walk out of the Third Front. This would be an ideal dream situation for the NDA which will be waiting with open arms. In order to avert this, and to keep “communal forces” at bay, there has to be an encore of 2004. The question is who will blink first – Karat or Congress? After all in the secular-communal divide, secularism has to triumph, even if it is pseudo-secularism!!!