Friday, September 25, 2009

HISTORY'S ROLE REVERSAL

President Barack Obama is quite firm that all those non-signatory countries to Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) should fall in line and sign the NPT that came into effect on July 1968. He ensured that the United Nations Security Council adopted a US-sponsored resolution committing to work towards a world without nuclear weapons. The meeting was chaired by Obama himself and the resolution authorises the Security Council with the responsibility to determine and respond as necessary when violations of the Treaty threaten international peace and security. What does this mean is to state the obvious. Obama made a very pious statement that the resolution shared the US commitment to a goal of a world without nuclear weapons.

Since 1968, 189 countries signed the Treaty, five of which are declared Nuclear Weapon States (NWS). Only four sovereign countries have consistently refused to sign the treaty and they are India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea. Interestingly, expansionist China, emerging nuclear power nation Iran and rogue nation Libya were signatories. North Korea did sign initially and then backed out. Basically, the present resolution targets India and Pakistan. Israel has not made any open declaration about its nuclear status and North Korea, any way, is a pariah among the international community.

Therefore, India was very quick to respond with a firm “no” to the UNSC resolution. India’s argument is that the NPT creates a club of “nuclear haves” and a larger group of “nuclear have-nots” by restricting the legal use of nuclear weapons to those states that tested them before 1967, but the Treaty never explains on what ethical grounds such a distinction is valid.

India is also of the view that nuclear weapons are an integral part of India’s national security and will remain so, pending non-discriminatory and global nuclear disarmament. Non-proliferation and disarmament are complementary to each other. India maintains that without tangible progress in disarmament, the current emphasis on non-proliferation cannot be sustained.

In fact, Abdel Nasser of Egypt, one of the architects of Non-aligned Movement, once said “basically they did whatever they wanted to do before the introduction of NPT and then devised it to prevent others from doing what they had themselves been doing before.

India also feels that the NPT is flawed because of violations by the five Nuclear Weapon States (NWS). Art 1 of the Treaty prevents transfer of nuclear weapons or the nuclear explosive devices by the five NWS and also not to assist, encourage or induce a non-nuclear weapon state to acquire nuclear weapons. If we go by the nuclear proliferator of Pakistan, AQ Khan’s letter to his wife, China has been doing exactly what the NPT prohibited. What could the signatories to NPT do to restrain China from nuclear proliferation?

NWS are also prevented from using nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states except in response to nuclear attack or conventional attack in alliance with a NWS. How did the US follow this provision of the Treaty? It had nuclear war heads targeted at North Korea for decades. US also invoked the possibility of using it against rogue states. France was no exception either. What could the NWS do to the signatory Iran when it is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons?

So, India may not be totally wrong in resisting the attempts by world powers to make India sign the NPT. But one cannot miss the 360 degree turnaround in the world scenario between Fifties and Sixties and the 21st century. There was a time during the Cold War when both America and the Soviet Union, in complete disregard of the world opinion, were indulging in nuclear arms race. It was India which first raised a moral rebellion against nuclear weapons and it was C Rajagopalachari, at the age of 84, who undertook his first foreign visit to meet John F Kennedy to prevail upon him the need to give up the arms race keeping in view the interests of humanity and posterity.

It will be worthwhile to take a peep into history to know how it was left to the first Indian to voice the country’s protest against the nuclear proliferation much before the NPT whereas it may now appear that India is obsessed with the need for n-weapons for its security because of the changed geo-political equations when it says “no” to UNSC resolution.

Soviet Union’s 50-megaton nuclear bang made Rajaji to demand that India ostracise the USSR and Nehru was unwilling to take such a drastic step. Later when America scheduled retaliatory blasts, Bertrand Russell wanted an Indian ship to be sent to the Pacific Zone. Nehru was reluctant even to this proposal. After series of exchange of letters between Nehru and Rajaji, it was agreed to send the latter by the Gandhi Peace Foundation to the US and USRR to prevail upon both the Heads of States to call off the nuclear arms race.

It was on September 28, 1962 (exactly 47 years ago) Rajaji accompanied by RR Diwakar of the Gandhi Peace Foundation and journalist Shiv Rao, met John F Kennedy in the White House. Recalling the visit, Rajmohan Gandhi, grandson of Rajaji goes into the details of the meeting in his book “The Rjaji Story 1937-1972” (pp 311)
“Kennedy sat in his rocking chair, with Diwakar and Shiv Rao on his right and Rajaji and BK Nehru on his left. Rajaji began disarmingly. He was not pleading, he said, for American disarmament: how could he, when his own government had a policy of armed defence? But the immediate cessation of nuclear tests stood on a different footing. Delicately he introduced the argument that the world as a whole had a right to say to the nuclear powers that they could not, in the name of testing, poison the atmosphere and endanger humanity, now and in the future”.

Was the talk fruitful? Rajaji was asked by a reporter. It was “flowerful” was the reply.

What an irony and quirk of world scenario. Nearly half-a-century ago, India was pleading with the major world powers for cessation of nuclear tests which endangered humanity. Now, India is being asked to sign the non-proliferation treaty by the very same powers and India says “nuclear weapons are an integral part of India’s national security".

Friday, September 18, 2009

UPA-II'S TWEETS

The euphoria that the UPA-II’s reasonably impressive victory created during the 2009 general elections seems to be withering away. There is an uncomfortable feeling that things are falling apart and that the Manmohan Singh government is losing control over men and matters. It is really disappointing that there is noticeable drift in such a short span in political and administrative direction of the Union government.
It all started with the fiasco in Sharm-el-Sheikh where the Prime Minister came out in poor light either due to the US pressure or out of his own weakness to be seen as an accommodating head of government. The net result was he had to cut a very sorry figure within the country and it was left to his cabinet colleagues to do damage control. He did irreparable damage to the national interest when he agreed to include Balochistan in the joint statement. The External Affairs Minister, S M Krishna, proved to be another Shivraj Patil minus his sartorial splendour.

As if the discomfiture in Egypt was not enough, Krishna was in the midst of an unseemly controversy when he was residing in a five-star hotel at the cost of tax payers’ money along with his deputy. It was left to the Finance Minister to make amends by going in for austerity measures which for all practical purposes is nothing but tokenism. Even tokenism is okay if it has a bearing on others in the administration. But the Minister of State for External Affairs, Shashi Tharoor threw the Congress party, which came to power on the slogan of “Aam admi”, into great embarrassment with his remark on “Cattle class” and “Holy Cows”. Unfortunately for Tharoor, he made this remark on Twitter network when his boss Sonia Gandhi was travelling by economy class. This has infuriated Congressmen no end and they are after his scalp. Rajasthan chief minister Ghelot wants him to resign. As a side show to this farcical austerity, here comes a report that Rahul Gandhi’s Tamil Nadu tour cost Rs 1 crore. Did this exposure make him to take to Shatabdhi when he went to Haryana?

Union Health Minister, Ghulam Nabi Azad also proved to be a bad choice and the way he handled swine flu pandemic did not bring any credit to the government. The very fact that his proposal to disband the Medical, Dental and Pharmacy Councils of India was summarily turned down by the Prime Minister with a suggestion to hold wider consultations before a final decision speaks volumes about the confidence he enjoys with the head of government. Another minister, E Ahmed, though not from Congress, is accused of a massive scandal in Haj pilgrimage. The relationship with the NCP is not too cosy and it is only the fear of Shiv Sena’s return that might keep the Cong-NCP ties in tact, if at all.

More than all these developments which do not anyway enhance the prestige of the government and the party, what should be really worrying the party is the post-YSR drama for succession. Andhra Pradesh played a crucial role under YSR in enabling the UPA bounce back to power at the Centre by sending 33 MPs to Lok Sabha few months ago. The Congress party must have thought that AP is an impregnable fort for the party. Today, that fort is in tatters. Though K Rosaiah was installed as the chief minister by the high command, his writ does not run and the local media is full of reports of how the ministers care a damn for him and how they don’t even attend the CM’s review meetings. Even the Congress legislators have not bothered to call on him for courtesy sake after he took over as CM. There are also reports that if YSR’s son Jagan Mohan Reddy is not coronated, there could be a split in the party. Whether it is true or not, the fact remains that the Andhra Pradesh Congress is not going to be as strong as it was in the last five years and dissidence is bound to weaken the party. It is highly unlikely that the party would be able to repeat its 2009 performance in 2014 when Congress is hoping to be on its own thanks to the heir apparent’s efforts to revitalise the party.

Even the UPA allies are contributing their own share to embarrass the government. The man who revels in blackmail politics, Muthuvel Karunanidhi, has once again raised his pet theme of “Self-Rule” for Tamil Nadu as he finds the Union government to be weak. Well, one does not know what he means by “Self-Rule”, but if what he means is family rule he already has it. It is his family which controls the state in all aspects. But where he might feel threatened is the noise that Crown Prince Rahul made in Tamil Nadu and wanted the Congress to come back to power on its own. This is something that he can’t put up with. Hence Karunanidhi raised the banner of “Self-Rule” as a red rag.

Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee, in her own inimitable style, demanded a CBI enquiry into job scam during the Lalu Prasad regime. This will only queer the pitch and deepen the hostilities between UPA and RJD in Bihar where RJD seems to be on the comeback trail. This comes at a time when Lalu Prasad is slowly trying to cool down the temperature in his relationship with the Congress. Further, if any concrete material about the job racket comes out of the enquiry, more than Lalu, it is going to affect the image of the UPA regime.

Though UP chief minister Mayawati or her party is not part of the UPA, she is also threatening the government of India of serious consequences if memorials dedicated to Bahujan Samaj Party icons are demolished. She is hinting at serious law and order situation, an euphemism for anarchy and lawlessness in the state leading to President’s Rule.

Politics apart, even the image of the judiciary has also taken a severe beating under the UPA-II regime. It is something unusual for the Chief Justice of India to summon a High Court chief justice for his explanation on corruption charges. The Karnataka Bar Association has decided to boycott the courts so long as Justice Dinakaran, CJ of Karnatak High Court continues to be in office. Another judge of the same court had been using the media to express his views on a sensitive subject like disclosure of assets by judges. The Law Minister under UPA-I was only a domestic help of the Nehru-Gandhi family and his successor seems to be no better in protecting the image of the judiciary.

One did not expect that the UPA-II would find itself in such a mess within six months, but fortunately for the Congress, the principal Opposition is in no better position. Not a solace for the nation really!

Friday, September 11, 2009

FAKE SECULARISM

Public discourse, including public domain in the country is getting increasingly communally surcharged. Every incident or development is viewed through the communal prism, especially so if it involves the minority community. When the Prime Minister of the country says that showing special favours to the deprived sections of the minority community, is not appeasement, he only sees the religion behind the deprived sections. This itself smacks of communal approach to the genuine problems of the citizens irrespective of their religious background.

It is not the government alone that promotes communal mindset in the country, but the so-called secularists and rights activists do their best to communally sensitise the people. As a logical corollary, we are also hearing voices that condone acts of terrorism with the cause and effect theory, which always takes one-way route, and also try to find human trait in every terrorist.

There were fears, when so much of media attention was on 26/11 accused Kasab, that he may be made to appear like a hero. The fears have come true when a left-leaning political commentator wrote in a national daily that Kasab was only a puppet and not the puppeteer quoting his statement to the interrogators that he too was a human and that he wanted to run away when his mentors had instructed the group to carry on killing till the end.

According to this columnist, “puppets like Kasab commit inhuman crimes they are told to do, but when confronted with their victims long after the frenzy is over, they sometimes become ordinary human beings again”. The writer wants to make a distinction between them and their controllers and says: “The only tears Kasab’s bosses must be shedding would be at his capture. Kasab on the other hand, surrounded by Indians, Hindus at that, people whom he’s been trained to kill, wonders if anyone will tie him a rakhi” Perhaps the writer thinks on Kasab’s behalf and there will be no wonder if our activists launch a campaign “Rakhi for Kasab” on the lines of “no noose for Afzal Guru”.

The double standards that our “secularists” adopt while dealing with the Gujarat chief minister in comparison with other chief ministers in rest of the states expose their communal mindset and a sense of fake secularism. True, Modi’s track record in 2002 is sullied; that does not mean everything that followed has to be viewed with the same glasses. Emergency in 2005 was a terrible event in the history of post Independent India, but the nation did not look at Indira Gandhi as a despot during the rest of her political career. There are so many Congress chief ministers who bloodied their hands while instigating communal riots. They are forgotten and forgiven. But not Narendra Modi. He can’t be hauled over the coals on any other area like governance, development and corruption-free environment. So, Post-Godhra stick comes handy for the secularists to beat him up with.

Let’s take the case of ban on Jaswant’s book on Jinnah. This columnist does not believe in banning books. Counter to a controversial book is another book exposing the contrived interpretations, if at all. But, let us recall the ban that Rajiv Gandhi imposed on “Satanic Verses”. I don’t remember that anybody had the guts to question the ban nor was there any appeal against the ban in any judicial forum. We never talked about the freedom of expression of Danish cartoonists. We only talked about the offence it caused to a particular community.

Even if there was a petition against “Satanic Verses”, it is doubtful whether it would have been entertained. There was no protest against the ban onTasleema Nasreen’s books as well. But look at the sanctimonious protests against the ban on Jaswant’s book, because it showed a leader, perceived to be a right winger, on poor light.

Now, the media frenzy is on Ahmadabad Judicial Magistrate’s report on Ishrat Jahan’s encounter as if there are no fake encounters in states other than Gujarat. Even after Gujarat High Court stayed the report and ordered an enquiry into the conduct of the Magistrate, newspapers and television channels have not stopped focusing on the report.

In the neighbouring state of Maharashstra one Khwaja Yunus (26) was picked up from Aurangabad by Mumbai Police in December 2002 in connection with a bomb blast in a BEST bus in Ghatkopar. On Jan 7 2003, the police enacted a “drama” of Yunus’s escape while being escorted to the court and since then there is no trace of Yunus. Speculation is that he has been killed in an alleged fake encounter. An SI of Mumbai Police, Daya Nayak, has 83 shoot-outs to his dubious credit and he is named “Encounter Specialist” a la Salaskar martyred on 26/11. Nayak is facing trial not for encounters, but in a disproportionate assets case.

It is not just Maharashtra alone. Data available with National Crime Record Bureau indicate that UP topped the list with 68 fake encounters in 2003-04, Bihar 11, Andhra Pradesh 14, Madhya Pradesh 7. As recently as in July this year, an insurance employee who landed in Dehra Dun to join his duties was killed in a fake encounter. In the year 2009 between April and July, there were 28 fake encounters in the country, according to Union Minister Ajay Maken who gave this data in Parliament. According to NHRC, the second highest number of incidents was in Manipur during 2008-09 with 16 cases, out of which 6 were in just four months in 2009. But, Supreme Court wants only Modi to come clean on encounters and to get to the bottom of such encounters.

The Union government, which was caught on the wrong foot with its affidavit, has booted out the officials responsible for the affidavit which endorsed the fact that Ishrat Jahan and her accomplices were indeed LeT Operatives. All India Muslim League wants all the Gujarat-cadre officers posted at the Centre should be repatriated. A leading national daily had Gujarat as the lead story on three consecutive days with letters to the editor predominantly from one community.

Of course there were two letters in the same daily pointing out the bias. One reader recalled Warangal encounter last year when two suspects involved in a case of acid attack on college girls were killed in “fake encounters”. At that time the police were lauded for their “bravery”. Fortunately for the cops, the suspects were not from the minority community. In such a case, it would have taken a different turn.
Another reader pointed out that the affidavit filed by the Centre also says Ishrat, Javed and the two persons (who are yet to be identified and believed to be Pakistanis since no one claimed their bodies) were terror suspects. Had they planted bombs and killed innocent people, would we not have blamed the Gujarat police for not acting promptly on the intelligence provided?

Admittedly, terrorists or no terrorists, no one can be killed in cold blood. When America wants Osama bin Laden dead or alive or when it eliminated Mehsud and other Talibans, no one talked about their human rights. May be, there are two categories of terrorists and their human rights vary depending on their geographical location.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

WAR OF SUCCESSION

This is the season of war of succession. We used to say that nature doesn’t leave a vacuum. Why only nature? Politics too does not leave a vacuum and that is what we are witnessing these days. We have been seeing the unseemly spectacle of “war” within the principal opposition party in the country which once upon a time boasted about its disciplined leaders and cadre. To use a clichéd expression, power corrupted the party much faster than what it did to the Congress. Even before the BJP could sort out its problem, the state Congress has been infected with the same virus, after all, the season being one of viral infections.

With the tragic death of Dr Y S Rajasekara Reddy, known as a faction leader just five years ago, and metamorphed into an invincible neta riding like a colossus in the Congress corridors with no one to challenge him in the faction ridden party, the state Congress is caught unawares. Even as the official announcement of YSR’s death was trickling in, Congress ministers and legislators, have made up their mind as to who should be the successor. Sympathy factor being the major criterion for determining the succession game in Indian politics, especially so in the Congress, a decisive majority of the legislators came out in the open, even as the mortal remains of YSR lay in state for public homage, and announced that YSR’s son Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy should inherit YSR legacy.

There was no Constitutional vacuum as Konisetti Rosaiah had been sworn in as chief minister. Then, why this haste even before the state mourning is over? Rosaiah is not such a politician with great mass appeal and political base, caste playing a major role in building ones political base in our political system, who would have consolidated himself in the new assignment, brought in by a quirk of destiny. In fact, to allay any possible fears, Rosaiah has been repeating himself that he is only an interim chief minister.

So, the apprehensions of YSR loyalists are manifold. Except during the period of YSR rule, when he crushed all dissidence in the party and born dissidents like V Hanumantha Rao, Shashidar Reddy and the like running for cover, Congress has never been a picture of unity. With YSR’s physical disappearance from the scene, state Congressmen, true to their nature, will fight among themselves There will be so many contenders for the top post. Whatever was achieved by YSR will be squandered in no time and the party will go back in history to the eighties. They feel that Jagan would be able to ride the sympathy wave with no one trying to challenge in him so long as the sympathy lasts.

As if to add to their fears, the media started unleashing a long list of contenders. One does not know whether they are real contenders or some of them could be television channel’s favourites. Thus, we had the names of D Srinivas, APCC chief, S Jaipal Reddy, Union Minister for Urban development, Ms Purandareswari, Union Minister, Pallam Raju, another Union Minister.

None of them would fit the bill. Srinivas, being the APCC chief could not win his own election, let alone helping other candidates win. That too, he was defeated by a BJP candidate, whose party has no political influence whatsoever in the state. Jaipal Reddy will never be trusted by the party high command because of his role during the Emergency and Bofors debate. Further, with no political base in the state, he could win his own Lok Sabha seat courtesy YSR. Can he unite the faction ridden party? Purandareswari, a new entrant to the Congress is such a light weight that the “sharks” in the Congress would gobble her up. It is doubtful whether Pallam Raju is known very well to the people of Andhra Pradesh outside Kakinada.Interestingly, no one from within the state cabinet has been named for the top job.

At the moment there seems to be no choice for the Andhra Pradesh legislators except to project Jagan Mohan Reddy in order to scuttle worst form of infighting for power. True, he is quite young for the top post and has no experience. But the emerging trend in the country not only in Congress, but in other regional olutfits, is to bring in young blood. When Congressmen, both old and young, are rooting for Rahul Gandhi for the Prime Minister post, did they give a thought to his inexperience? What was the experience of Rajiv Gandhi when he succeeded his mother?
The scenario in the Congress at the national level is that only an offspring of the Nehru-Gandhi family could unite the party. This is being only replicated at the state level. YSR built up the party profile in such a manner in the state that the partymen have no qualms in projecting a leader for the top post who has only completed 100 days in electoral politics.

Jagan acolytes may also cite instances of Omar Abdullah of J & K, H D Kumaraswamy in Karnataka, Patnaik in Orissa, and M K Stalin in Tamil Nadu, who is waiting in the wings to succeed his father. Besides, Pawar is grooming his daughter Supriya Sule, Mulayam his son Akilesh, Prakash Singh Badal has almost anointed his son as his successor. Let’s be realistic. Like parliamentary democracy, presidential democracy, we have evolved an ingenuous form of democracy, that is, dynastic democracy and let’s accept it with all its faultlines. May be, the Left and to some extent the BJP (barring Rajasthan where Vasundhara and former BJP leader Jaswanth projected their offspring) have not fallen in line with this brand of democracy.

There are reports that 120 legislators and 30 MPs have petitioned the high command (read Sonia) to name Jagan as the successor to YSR. Congress culture being what it is, what counts ultimately is the decision of the high command. Even if a single legislator is not in favour of Jagan and the high command proposes him, everyone will endorse it. Likewise, if Sonia is not in favour of Jagan, all these legislators who are campaigning for Jagan will make a U turn. No doubt, Sonia is on the horns of a great dilemma. She has to keep in mind 2014 when the state party has to stand by her as YSR did. Who will deliver 30 odd seats? Will Jagan do it? At the same time she cannot have two sets of logic, one for the induction of her son and another for a state chief minister’s son.

If sympathy factor prevails and YSR’s baton is passed on to Jagan, he has to prove his mettle within a year. Otherwise, history will revisit the party.

WAR OF SUCCESSION