Somehow certain time-tested sayings go haywire in the Indian political context. It is said that success has too many fathers and failure is an orphan. For the success of the Indian National Congress there is only one father and that is, who has not become qualified to become a father, so far. 39-year old eligible bachelor Rahul Gandhi is that father who is credited with the “innovative” idea of going it alone in UP and Bihar and strategised the party’s campaign elsewhere and that is reported to have paid dividends. It is a different matter that no one in the party can dare claim credit for success when the family is around. Of course, there would have been a scramble to take the blame in case of failure. Does this not turn the saying on its head?
So, if success has only one father, failure is no longer an orphan atleast in the political domain. Look at the reasons cited for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s ignominy. The first target, as can be imagined, was Narendra Modi. Projecting him as the future Prime Ministerial candidate of the party, according to analysts, was one solid reason for the people to reject the party. Then came the usual suspect – Varun Gandhi. After his alleged “hate speech”, he should have been thrown out; instead he was given a ticket. So ran the argument. Abusive campaign was cited as yet another reason and that the party was concentrating on the “weak” Prime Minister campaign without focussing on any issues. The party failed to project “young faces” as after all 60% of the electorate are under 30 years of age. The major weapon that the voters used to quell the BJP was the “Hindutva” factor. This was the main focus of all the political pundits in print as well as in the news channels. “Hindutva” is passé and so long as the party sticks to this outdated, exclusive and retrograde ideology, it cannot hope to win the hearts of the people. This was the verdict of the analysts without exception. Apologists of the “Hindutva” in the ranks of ideologues took a U turn overnight. Well, let’s imagine for the sake of argument that the BJP had won. All these negative factors would have been shown to us as the “game changers”. That is the power and intelligence of our spin doctors!
The problem with these analysts is that they live in their own cocoons. They presume that what they discuss threadbare during the prime time is reaching those in the remote villages and they are going to decide based on such sterile verbose that was generated in order to fill airtime on news channels or space in the newspapers. If newspapers were to decide who should rule and who should not, the Congress should not have returned to power in Andhra Pradesh. And if the national news channels, who perch themselves on a high moral ground, and pontificate to the nation, were to be taken seriously by the voters, Varun Gandhi should have been given a drubbing in Pilibhit by the voters, Malegoan should not have returned a BJP candidate, and a prime accused in the 2008 anti-Christian riot cases should not have been elected to the Orissa Assembly from G Udyagiri even as he was contesting from jail. If “Hindutva” were to be the culprit, why did the APCC chief D Srinivas, who wanted to cut the hands of those who go against the minorities (never mind he borrowed the line from Varun) lose to a BJP candidate. Mind you, only two BJP candidates were elected in the entire state of AP, and one of them won against the APCC chief!
Prior to the 2009 verdict, pundits were shouting from the studios that the days of national parties are over and that the regional parties have eaten their space. People have proved them wrong. Coalition is no longer an inevitable evil in our polity. If the Congress still sticks to it, it is the because the party is yet to fully regain its self-confidence. It could have thrown out the DMK for the unseemly spectacle it created and still ensured political stability. But it did not do so.
It is only the failure of the national parties that gave political space for the regional parties. Now that the 2009 polls have brought some sense to the national parties, there is a realisation that coalition politics is only strengthening the regional parties and if the national parties have to ensure their rightful place under the sun, it must stand alone. To that extent, Rahul should be given credit. It was a whiff of fresh air for those who used to see electoral politics only through the prism of coalition. Now, there is a realisation that coalition politics with leaders like Karunanidhi and Pawar ruling the roost is only damaging the national interest. Therefore L K Advani admitted, reversing his earlier obsession, that bipolar polity has become a reality after 16th May.
Tamil Nadu is a classic example for the national parties playing a second fiddle to the regional forces. For decades, the Congress was enjoying a piggy back ride on either of the main Dravidian parties. Even today, the Congress, without whose support the minority DMK government cannot survive, is not making a demand to be included in the government. Participation in the government could have given more visibility and influence to the Congress, but it renounced power. Sonia Gandhi may have opted for renunciation for different reasons, but why should the party suffer in Tamil Nadu. Better late than never, and Rahul is reportd to have said that his next focus would be Tamil Nadu. Yadavs in UP and Bihar who were playing the caste and communal card have been shown their place by the voters. Sharad Pawar with his 8 seats cannot wag his tail any longer. So, it is a question of time before the grand old party sheds the “baggage” and stand alone as a truly national party.
The second largest party in terms of seats in the Lok Sabha is the BJP. It has dawned on the saffron party also that if it has to grow it has to stand alone. Quick-fixes will not work. After divorcing the BJP, Biju Janata Dal has shown to the world that it does not need any coalition partners to be in power. This has already given ideas to JD(U) in Bihar and it is most likely that the JD(U) might do a BJD in Bihar when the assembly elections are due. Other coalition partners of the NDA are fly-by-night operators and this is the time for the BJP to build the party on its own strength rather than be dependent on coalition partners who proved to be unreliable. Whether to dilute Hindutva or pursue it vigorously is a matter of detail for the party to work out. But what is important is that both the national parties must stand alone and build the parties on their own strength without regional props.
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