WAR OF SUCCESSION

This is the season of war of succession. We used to say that nature doesn’t leave a vacuum. Why only nature? Politics too does not leave a vacuum and that is what we are witnessing these days. We have been seeing the unseemly spectacle of “war” within the principal opposition party in the country which once upon a time boasted about its disciplined leaders and cadre. To use a clichéd expression, power corrupted the party much faster than what it did to the Congress. Even before the BJP could sort out its problem, the state Congress has been infected with the same virus, after all, the season being one of viral infections.

With the tragic death of Dr Y S Rajasekara Reddy, known as a faction leader just five years ago, and metamorphed into an invincible neta riding like a colossus in the Congress corridors with no one to challenge him in the faction ridden party, the state Congress is caught unawares. Even as the official announcement of YSR’s death was trickling in, Congress ministers and legislators, have made up their mind as to who should be the successor. Sympathy factor being the major criterion for determining the succession game in Indian politics, especially so in the Congress, a decisive majority of the legislators came out in the open, even as the mortal remains of YSR lay in state for public homage, and announced that YSR’s son Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy should inherit YSR legacy.

There was no Constitutional vacuum as Konisetti Rosaiah had been sworn in as chief minister. Then, why this haste even before the state mourning is over? Rosaiah is not such a politician with great mass appeal and political base, caste playing a major role in building ones political base in our political system, who would have consolidated himself in the new assignment, brought in by a quirk of destiny. In fact, to allay any possible fears, Rosaiah has been repeating himself that he is only an interim chief minister.

So, the apprehensions of YSR loyalists are manifold. Except during the period of YSR rule, when he crushed all dissidence in the party and born dissidents like V Hanumantha Rao, Shashidar Reddy and the like running for cover, Congress has never been a picture of unity. With YSR’s physical disappearance from the scene, state Congressmen, true to their nature, will fight among themselves There will be so many contenders for the top post. Whatever was achieved by YSR will be squandered in no time and the party will go back in history to the eighties. They feel that Jagan would be able to ride the sympathy wave with no one trying to challenge in him so long as the sympathy lasts.

As if to add to their fears, the media started unleashing a long list of contenders. One does not know whether they are real contenders or some of them could be television channel’s favourites. Thus, we had the names of D Srinivas, APCC chief, S Jaipal Reddy, Union Minister for Urban development, Ms Purandareswari, Union Minister, Pallam Raju, another Union Minister.

None of them would fit the bill. Srinivas, being the APCC chief could not win his own election, let alone helping other candidates win. That too, he was defeated by a BJP candidate, whose party has no political influence whatsoever in the state. Jaipal Reddy will never be trusted by the party high command because of his role during the Emergency and Bofors debate. Further, with no political base in the state, he could win his own Lok Sabha seat courtesy YSR. Can he unite the faction ridden party? Purandareswari, a new entrant to the Congress is such a light weight that the “sharks” in the Congress would gobble her up. It is doubtful whether Pallam Raju is known very well to the people of Andhra Pradesh outside Kakinada.Interestingly, no one from within the state cabinet has been named for the top job.

At the moment there seems to be no choice for the Andhra Pradesh legislators except to project Jagan Mohan Reddy in order to scuttle worst form of infighting for power. True, he is quite young for the top post and has no experience. But the emerging trend in the country not only in Congress, but in other regional olutfits, is to bring in young blood. When Congressmen, both old and young, are rooting for Rahul Gandhi for the Prime Minister post, did they give a thought to his inexperience? What was the experience of Rajiv Gandhi when he succeeded his mother?
The scenario in the Congress at the national level is that only an offspring of the Nehru-Gandhi family could unite the party. This is being only replicated at the state level. YSR built up the party profile in such a manner in the state that the partymen have no qualms in projecting a leader for the top post who has only completed 100 days in electoral politics.

Jagan acolytes may also cite instances of Omar Abdullah of J & K, H D Kumaraswamy in Karnataka, Patnaik in Orissa, and M K Stalin in Tamil Nadu, who is waiting in the wings to succeed his father. Besides, Pawar is grooming his daughter Supriya Sule, Mulayam his son Akilesh, Prakash Singh Badal has almost anointed his son as his successor. Let’s be realistic. Like parliamentary democracy, presidential democracy, we have evolved an ingenuous form of democracy, that is, dynastic democracy and let’s accept it with all its faultlines. May be, the Left and to some extent the BJP (barring Rajasthan where Vasundhara and former BJP leader Jaswanth projected their offspring) have not fallen in line with this brand of democracy.

There are reports that 120 legislators and 30 MPs have petitioned the high command (read Sonia) to name Jagan as the successor to YSR. Congress culture being what it is, what counts ultimately is the decision of the high command. Even if a single legislator is not in favour of Jagan and the high command proposes him, everyone will endorse it. Likewise, if Sonia is not in favour of Jagan, all these legislators who are campaigning for Jagan will make a U turn. No doubt, Sonia is on the horns of a great dilemma. She has to keep in mind 2014 when the state party has to stand by her as YSR did. Who will deliver 30 odd seats? Will Jagan do it? At the same time she cannot have two sets of logic, one for the induction of her son and another for a state chief minister’s son.

If sympathy factor prevails and YSR’s baton is passed on to Jagan, he has to prove his mettle within a year. Otherwise, history will revisit the party.