WOMEN'S BILL TO REST IN PEACE?

All the major political parties in the country seem to have tied themselves up in knots so tightly that it is not going to be that easy for them to untie themselves in the near future on the much-acclaimed and fancied Women’s Reservation Bill that was touted as the most historic one marking a milestone in the post-Independence history of India.

The euphoria that was witnessed on Tuesday thanks to the hyper-active media, the encomiums that were showered on the Congress chief Sonia by her courtiers and those in the media who pay regular obeisance to her, and the images of Left and Right in tight embrace after the passage of the Bill in the Rajya Sabha (I mean the rare scene of Sushma Swaraj and her principal political opponent Brinda Karat holding themselves together) have all vanished into thin air.

What we witnessed on Thursday was just an anti-climax to the celebrations the nation saw a day before. Congress henchmen and ill-tempered spokespersons of the party may hail their leader and her resolve to push through the Bill. But, the real victory for making the principal movers of the Bill to make a U-turn on its passage in the Lok Sabha goes to those “thugs” and “goons” who made a determined bid for sabotage.
There are reports that the Congress may go slow because of the likely backlash from OBC groups and Muslims. To that extent Yadav trio frightened the deity at 10 Janpath notwithstanding her bravdo before the cameras. Though Yadavs may not have the numbers even to move a no-confidence motion, they could succeed in browbeating the ruling party and not the ruling coalition, mind you. Partners like Trinamool Congress, Nationalist Congress Party and the National Conference are also worried about their vote banks. The trio have cleverly played the Muslim card which is a potent weapon to beat the secular parties with. That is the reason the government is talking of consensus while it was averse to any consultation with its own allies like Trinamool, leave alone the Opposition without whose support it could not have dreamt of passing the bill.

Now, the issue before Sonia Gandhi is not ensuring the implementation of Rajiv’s vision as she put it before the television cameras which were repeatedly shown on the national channels to drive home the point to the national audience that the credit must go to Sonia. Even Sonia was graceless when she failed to acknowledge the role of the Opposition to push through the Bill in the Upper House. Be that as it may, her primary concern is the survival of the government especially when the Opposition parties are closing their ranks to corner the Treasury Benches on the Finance Bill. That explains Finance Minister’s overtures to the Yadavs. Stage is all set to see that Lalu Prasad walks free in the disproportionate assets case. Timing on the issue of summons to Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi is also significant as the so-called secular parties have to think twice before joining hands with the “communal” BJP on the floor of the House. After all the BJP carries on its ranks a tainted chief minister. You don’t need to be a political pundit to see through the game of the Congress in splitting the Opposition so that the passage of the Finance Bill becomes a smooth affair.

So, despite the tall talk of Rajiv’s vision and Sonia’s resolve to ensure the passage of Women’s Reservation Bill as her gift to the nation and its womenfolk, the bottom line is survival of the government. One need not be surprised if the Congress succumbs to the Muslim card and modify the Bill, if Yadavs are able to mobilize Muslim MPs cutting across party lines. Already, the MIM MP Asaduddin Owaisi had warned that in case the Women’s Reservation Bill is passed in the present form, the Lower House will become “Hindu Lok Sabha”. In case the Congress succumbs to this pressure for quota within quota for Muslims, the next logical step is to demand reservation in the remaining 66.3% strength of the Lok Sabha. History will repeat. But who cares?

When compared with the ruling party, the main Opposition BJP seems to be in greater trouble despite its stiff upper lip. When it tried to put the ruling party on the mat on Monday for its poor floor management and lack of strategy, it did not perhaps anticipate that its own MPs are not on the same page as that of the leadership. It is not just the saffron-robed MP from UP who raised a banner of revolt. Other MPs are also opposed to the Bill for different reasons, either for rotation of seats, or use of marshals. All the Muslim MPs across party lines want quota within quota. Mamta Banerjee whose eyes are on the 2011 assembly polls in West Bengal would definitely like to please the Muslims without whose support she can’t think of entering the Writers Building. Can the Congress afford to ignore her? If the party is prepared to dilute the Bill, will it be acceptable to the saffron forces without whose support it is difficult to muster two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha. So, it is a catch-22 situation for the government.

Therefore, the political realities and compulsions might force those who are keen on carrying out “Rajiv’s vision” to allow the baby to go with the bath water.

Look at the flip side. There will be no stomach upset for our chief minister Rosaiah once again!