RATS JUMPING OUT OF SINKING SHIP

By S R Ramanujan

With Mrs Sonia Gandhi making a categorical statement that Dr Manmohan Singh is the Prime Ministerial candidate of the Congress party, there can be relief for the concerned citizens of this country. Not because the short interval in the dynastic rule will continue for another term, assuming that the UPA will manage numbers, but there will be level playing field among the Prime Ministerial candidates of the two major political formations. In fact, that is what the Election Commission also wants, I mean, level playing field. Soon after American Presidential polls, a comparison was sought to be made between the young and energetic Obama and Octogenarian Advani and the latter was equated with John McCain, Republican candidate who lost the elections. Now, with Manmohan Singh in the Prime Ministerial fray, who is not much younger to Advani any way, those who wanted to hold Advani’s age against him have been silenced. Advani doesn’t have to demonstrate any longer his physical prowess by posing for the photographers in a gym.
While Advani, despite his age, seems to be enjoying robust health, the same cannot be said of the Sardar who has just begun to attend office after the second bypass surgery and an angioplasty. As he himself admitted in his recent press conference he may not be able to take the rigours of a massive poll campaign throughout the length and breadth of the country comprising of an electorate of 710 million voters. In a way Advani may be better placed in terms of physical agility, leave alone his political strength or weakness.
Interestingly, the Congress President is yet to announce from where the Prime Ministerial candidate of the party would contest the elections and whether he would contest at all. A strong Prime Minister, as he claims himself to be one, and as one who is reported to have done a lot to the country in comparison to the NDA’s Prime Ministerial candidate, he should be able to contest the elections to the Lok Sabha from anywhere in the country instead of taking the Rajya Sabha route. Throughout his five-year term, he was only a Rajya Sabha member. Should we have a nominated Prime Minister once again?
Sonia Gandhi also said that Manmohan Singh alone can provide stability. Succumbing to the Left pressure for four-and-a-half years in the name of common minimum programme and diluting his own cherished economic reforms is what can be considered stability, yes, he provided stability. The only issue on which Singh showed that he has spine was the Indo-US nuclear deal. But that almost destabilised the government and the greatest wheeler dealer of Indian politics, Amar Singh, a Bollywood buddy, had to come to the rescue of his government by all foul means. Now, even he has started blackmailing the Congress and has almost deserted the party.
ManmohanSingh says that Advani presided over the Gujrat riots and that his greatest achievement was Babri demolition. Poor Sardar ignores his own backyard. Whose contribution was desecration of Golden Temple and demolition of Akal Takt. Who presided over the massacre of Sikhs in Delhi? Is it not his party and leader? Who presided over 26/11 and series of terror attacks throughout the UPA tenure which killed hundreds of people?
Even giving allowance for parties’ penchant for posturing during the thick of polls, UPA’s claim of its strength does not seem to be based on ground realities. Its allies in UP, Bihar and Jharkand (RJD, LJP and fly by night ally SP) have deserted the Congress even as claiming to be part of the UPA. While the Congress lost UP, Bihar and Jharkand even before the nomination process, there is a move by Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Janashakti Party to come together as a Front, well you may call it Fourth Front, and the result would be complete demolition of the grand old party. These three states put together have 134 seats.
The latest jolt to the Congress comes from Tamil Nadu where the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) has preferred to sail with AIADMK. One does not know with whom the AIADMK will sail after the elections. But at the moment, so long as Congress is with the DMK, there is no possibility of Jayalalithaa breaking bread with Congress since Jaya’s only target is Karunanidhi’s barren scalp. If the DMK fares badly on May 16 and UPA has no use for the party and is prepared to alienate it, one need not be surprised if Jaya goes with the UPA. That is the reason Dr Anbumani Ramadoss is keeping a door open when he says that he continues to have cordial relations with Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh.
Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra is making no bones of his Prime Ministerial ambition on and off despite the seat sharing arrangement between NCP and Congress. One day he says Third Front cannot be wished away as of no consequence. Another day he says that UPA cannot form government without Left support. He knows full well that the Left will not support the UPA if Manmohan Singh gets a second term as PM. In such a case, his hint is quite obvious. In case Left support becomes inevitable to keep the “communal” forces at bay, UPA has to look for an alternative candidate. Who is that alternative candidate? Pawar thinks that he will be the best choice. Will Mulayam and Lalu pave the way for Pawar? Certainly not. They themselves are the aspirants. In fact, RJD cadre wants to see Lalu as the Prime Minister. It is quite amusing to note that even as Pawar was playing this “secular” game with the Left and demonstrates his love for the reds, his party leader and former Speaker of the Lok Sabha, P A Sangma who is upset with the Congress for the President’s Rule in Meghalaya, says he would be campaigning for the BJP in the North-east. So much for the unity within.
Now, the only allies of 2004 left with the UPA are NCP and DMK. But the moot point is whether the NCP will continue with the UPA after the polls if the latter fails to get the required numbers. Another ally is a new found one in West Bengal and that is Trinamool Congress besides National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir. No one can hazard a guess as to which way Mamata will go after the polls.
By any reckoning, it appears the Conngress is almost isolated and the UPA is no longer a well-knit entity. A basic question that arises is this. If the allies like RJD, LJP, JMM, PMK and SP are confident that the UPA can get the magic number, will they behave in a manner they did with the party that claims that it alone can provide stability and that its leader alone is strong? To use a cliché, the rats are jumping out of the sinking ship.