SEASON OF POSTURING & POSITIONING

By S R Ramanujan
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Even as the world’s largest democracy is gearing up for a massive exercise to elect its 15th Lok Sabha by an electorate of more than 70 crore voters, what is happening in its neighbourhood, which were once part of the undivided India, should cause dismay and extreme worry. Chaos in our border nations is not to our advantage. Both Pakistan and Banagladesh are facing an unfortunate prospect of yet another military take over. It is quite clear that civil administration in Pakistan has lost control and it is unable to rein in those elements whom the country nurtured for long with ulterior motive. The time has come to pay back for its sins. Mutiny by Bangladesh Rifles is yet another grim reminder that democracy is a far cry for the beleaguered nation. These developments only confirm the widely held belief that Islam and democracy do not go together. Both our neighbours who opted for theocracy and tried their hand in democracy are failing. We could not help reminding ourselves of this reality as we are bracing up for elections with all its pitfalls. Undeniably, money power and muscle power, in their crude display, mar the spirit of this democratic exercise. But the soul of democracy is intact and we must feel proud of it.
Having said that, we can’t escape from taking a hard look at the realities of the poll exercise. What comes quite easily to politicians is "posturing" and it began in Gujarat on the Nano project of the Tatas. From the day Tatas decided to shift its unit to Gujarat after facing a state of turmoil in West Bengal, especially when so many Congress states, including Andhra Pradesh, rolled out the red carpet for the project, the grand old party of the nation could not digest the success of Modi. It wanted to score browny points. The usual suspect, Narendra Modi, and by extension the BJP, was branded as pro-rich, pro-corporate since, according to the Congress, cars are not a priority for the "aam admi". Does it mean that we have to close down all the major industries and go for cottage industries only? Well, this was obliquely suggested when Congress spokesperson said that in the Gandhiji’s state where Gandhiji wanted village economy to flourish, we have Nanos. The Congress wanted to position itself as "pro-poor" while charging its main contender for power as "pro-rich". Somehow, this did not click.
Now, the party wants to appropriate "Jai Ho" song for its campaign. Already there are posters of A R Rahman alongside Congress leaders. Does Rahman’s life style square up with "aam admi"? What a shame! What is the party’s contribution to the success of the Hollywood film or to the song which got the award? Yes, there is a major contribution. It provided the slum for Boyle to shoot the filth to his heart’s content so that Western audience could sit and enjoy the poverty of India.
Not to be outdone, the BJP also started the posturing game. The party’s Prime Ministerial candidate, Lal Krishna Advani wanted to appropriate Babasaheb Ambedkar for the party while participating in a dalit rally. Of course, he stated what was obvious and it was no secret. The Congress party did not give due importance to Ambedkar while he was alive and it saw to it that he and his party were defeated at the 1952 elections. According to political pundits, Advani wanted to achieve two things. First, it was to alienate dalits from the Congress by painting Congress as anti-Ambedkar and second, to build bridges with Mayawati by sharing common concern. Congress instantly reacted to this and quoted extensively from Arun Shourie’s "Worshipping false gods". There is no denying the fact that Ambedkar was the worst critic of Gandhiji and there was no love lost between them. Realising that any in-depth debate on the subject would only embarrass the Congress, there was silence from the second day. And the BJP, too, would not have been comfortable what with Shourie going hammer and tongs against Ambedkar calling him a British stooge in his book first published in 1997. So, there was an undeclared truce on the issue.
The poll battle is, in a way, gang war. In a gang war you don’t see the background of the person who joins your gang. What is important is whether the gangster has the muscle and the grit to use the muscle. Similarly, while the major parties are looking for allies, they are not bothered about their credentials. We should say that the concept of "political untouchability" , introduced by the Left, has been buried deep. Otherwise, how do you explain Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh coming together? How can YS Rajasekara Reddy make advances to Narendra, an RSS loyalist, to contest from Medak, assuming that media reports are correct? What is common between Prakash Karat and Jayalalithaa, the latter being a known sympathiser of Hindu cause and an acolyte of Narendra Modi? What makes Sharad Pawar to wink at Shiv Sena? What makes Advani to embrace a hard-boiled turncoat like Ajit Singh? So, the criteria is "winnability" and not ideology. If UPA has seven allies, the NDA must have equal number. So, that is the race now between the two major coalitions, but the time is running out.
Where does this leave the so-called Third Front, championed by the "sleeping Buddha" and the former Prime Minister Deve Gowda. According to him, the Front has eight partners - JD(S), TDP, TRS, AIADMK, and four Left parties. Already, Jayalalithaa is playing truant because her eyes are on the post-poll scenario. She may not mind going with either UPA or NDA depending on who gets the highest tally. Left parties also will have similar option except for the fact that they may not go with the NDA, whereas TDP may not be averse to sail with the NDA, but certainly not with the UPA. The only party that will remain with the Third Front is JD(S) with its tally of 3 or 4 MPs. Gowda’s hope is on Mayawati who has made it known that she will go alone. But then, how can he have two PM candidates in his Front?
It is not that the UPA is very comfortable with its allies. Sharad Pawar wants national alliance, and not state-wise seat adjustments. SP-Congress relations are an uneasy one in UP. Lalu and Paswan are shifting their stands quite often. Mamta is the most unpredictable ally for the Congress in W Bengal. Karunanidhi is not sure of himself in T Nadu and he has already started a war with the state Chief Electoral Officer, fearing that the latter’s independent functioning is not to his electoral advantage.
So far as NDA is concerned, it is also not on a firm footing either. Nitish Kumar has already started echoing the sentiments of Sharad Pawar. He says JD(U) will contest on its own outside Bihar if there is no national alliance. If Pawar gets an upper hand, Shiv Sena might play the Marathi manus card. Chautala and Ajit Singh are fly-by-night operators in politics.
It may take a couple of weeks for the major political formations to consolidate their positions. Until then, jockeying for space and posturing will go on.